Slightly modified the math from The Double Dixie Cup Problem by Newman & Shepp. I have not ran any sims to determine if the modifications are correct, but it does seem to match in the more easily verifiable cases such as seeking 1 copy of all rate up 4 stars
It treats pity as simply raising the base odds (e.g. 1.6% per pull for a 5*).
Doesn't allow you to specify scenarios like "any C6 4 star", you have to specify the one you are interested in
There's currently no way to use it to answer "with X pulls, how lucky must I get to achieve my goals?"
There's also no calcs for achieving a 5star + a 4star goal together right now. E.g. "1 C2 Albedo and 1 C6 Fischl". The expected values will be given separately
Seems like a simulation would answer all limitations, I just wanted to approach this problem with google sheets and without simulating. Currently working on limitation 2, but the math seems beyond me.
Adventure Rank EXP Calculator
This is a tool that can calculate remaining AR EXP and time left before you can reach AR 45/50/55 given regular progress (no quests, etc)