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Before 74 Pulls (Soft Pity), the following chart details the probabilities of obtaining units/characters
Item
Probability
Pity Guarantee
5*
0.6%
90 pulls
4*
5.1%
10 pulls
3*
94.3%
N/A
After the soft pity, the probability of the 5* increases by the base rate * 10, making it significantly more probable to receive a 5*.
The featured characters also have increased rates of pulling. The next 5* is guaranteed to be the featured character if you roll a 5* that is not featured. Similarly, for the 4* characters, a featured 4* is guaranteed if a 4* is rolled that is not featured.
Thus, the rates before pity weighting are as follows:
Item
Probability
Featured 5*
0.3%
Arbitrary 5*
0.3%
Featured 4*
2.55%
Arbitrary 4*
2.55%
Arbitrary 3*
94.3%
Specific 3*
7.25%
Estimated number of 5* pulls to get desired character:
Item
Pulls
C0 character (with pity)
1
C0 character (no pity)
1.5
C6 character (starting with pity)
10
C6 character (not starting with pity)
10.5
Number of pulls needed to get different results seperated by the 50th, 95th and 99th Precentile:
Item
50th Percentile
95th Percentile
99th Percentile
C0 of a rate-up 5* character
80
158
161
C6 of a rate-up 5* character
654
843
917
C0 of a rate-up 4* character
26
93
141
C6 of a rate-up 4* character
231
384
464
Featured Weapon Banner
Before 63 Pulls (Soft Pity), the following chart details the probabilities of obtaining units/characters
Item
Probability
Pity Guarantee
5*
0.7%
80 pulls
4*
6%
10 pulls
3*
93.3%
N/A
After the soft pity, the probability of the 5* increases by the base rate * 10, making it significantly more probable to receive a 5*.
The featured characters also have increased rates of pulling. The next 5* is guaranteed to be a featured weapon if you roll a 5* that is not featured. Similarly, for the 4* weapons, a featured 4* is guaranteed if a 4* is rolled that is not featured. This guarantee will carry over across banner changes. With Epitomized Path, a selected specific featured 5* weapon is guaranteed only on the 3rd 5* pull following 2 other 5* pulls which were not the selected 5* weapon. Epitomized Path progress does not carry over across banner changes (resetting every 3 weeks).
Thus, the rates before pity weighting are as follows:
Item
Probability
Featured 5*
0.525%
Arbitrary 5*
0.175%
Featured 4*
4.5%
Arbitrary 4*
1.5%
Arbitrary 3*
94.3%
Specific 3*
7.17%
Estimated number of 5* pulls to get desired weapon, with and without Epitomized Path or featured weapon pity (from a previous not-featured pull):
Item
Pulls
With Eptomized Path:
​
R1 weapon (no pity)
1.984375
R1 weapon (with pity)
1.8125
R5 weapon (no pity)
9.921875
R5 weapon (with pity)
9.75
Without Epitomized Path:
​
R1 weapon (no pity)
2.5
R1 weapon (with pity)
2.25
R5 weapon (no pity)
12.5
R5 weapon (with pity)
12.25
Number of pulls needed to get different results seperated by the 50th, 95th and 99th Precentile:
Item
50th Percentile
95th Percentile
99th Percentile
R1 of a rate-up 5* weapon
99
199
204
R5 of a rate-up 5* weapon
527
731
811
Standard Banner
Before 74 Pulls (Soft Pity), the following chart details the probabilities of obtaining units/characters
Item
Probability
Pity Guarantee
5*
0.6%
90 pulls
4*
5.1%
10 pulls
3*
94.3%
N/A
After the soft pity, the probability of the 5* increases by by the base rate * 10, making it significantly more probable to receive a 5*.
The rates before pity weighting are as follows:
Item
Probability
Specific 5*
0.04%
Specific 4*
0.15%
Specific 3*
7.17%
There are additional wish mechanics within the Standard Banner that complicate these probabilities. The Standard Banner has an underlying mechanic that ensures players do not roll weapons and characters multiple times consecutively. For 4* characters and weapons, you must receive atleast one of each within 30 wishes. For 5* characters and weapons, you must receive at least one of each within 270 wishes.
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